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Verde Valley Urban Rural Interface: How the Valley’s 3 largest cities are planning for climate change


 

Preface: Climate Change- All the World’s problem


Over the past decade or so, the world’s populations have become increasingly aware of the effects of climate change: extreme weather events like superstorms, extended heatwaves, megafires and drought have ramped up like never before and have left few still questioning the validity of climate science, which shows us that without question, human activity is the number one driving force in what scientists the world over are calling “the point of no return” or a “tipping point” in terms of ecological devastation in its various forms.


In other words, even if we do our best to address this multileveled problem, the world as we know it will never go back to the way it used to be in any of our lifetimes, due to multiple systems collapse, which is the dysfunction and decline of species, ecosystems, weather patterns and more. It is an overwhelming yet undeniable reality.


And yet, despite the harbingers of worldwide disaster and ultimate doom being more imminent than ever, this awareness of our current reality, no matter how painful it is to accept, is actually a good thing, at least in part; as now the paradigm shift is upon us, and we no longer have a choice to continue “business as usual” if we want to survive what is to come- that is to say, more extreme weather events and the ecological and economic fallout that is bound to occur as a result.


This means that we absolutely must address systems collapse. We must examine our own flawed human-made systems that are out of alignment with the systems of nature and rewrite them to preserve and repair what we can. We cannot live in a world where our life systems can no longer support life. It won’t be easy, but surely it’s worth it!


“We can’t get out of the mess we’ve created using an outdated system based on endless growth and consumption — a system that prioritizes profit and measures progress by increases in gross domestic product, or GDP. We need ways to ensure people’s needs are met without destroying the natural systems that make life, good health and wellbeing possible.” ( Exerpt from “Paradigm shift needed to address climate change, biodiversity loss” by David Suzuki, with contributions from Ian Hanington).


That being said- we are where we are, and we don’t know exactly where we’re headed- but thankfully, numerous academic and scientific organizations are hard at work to provide much-needed framework to help guide future decisions and policymaking for the better.

We can only hope these solutions are met with understanding and are utilized with great urgency before it is truly too late.


“The climate crisis has arrived and is accelerating faster than most scientists expected. It is more severe than anticipated, threatening natural ecosystems and the fate of humanity.”

World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency, BioScience, January 2020.

 

Challenges in Arizona


In Arizona, the effects of extreme weather have been widespread for quite a while in comparison to other parts of the country and the world. We are already deep into the realization that unmitigated development and unchecked resource exploitation are not sustainable. Drought, extreme heat waves, pollution and biodiversity loss are ongoing problems.


Overgrazing cattle on federally managed lands has led to devastation of multiple plant species and soil erosion, gaps in water regulation have caused depletion in groundwater levels, and minerals extraction has contaminated significant portions of land as well as the human population, especially on the Navajo Nation, which has suffered from both coal and uranium mining abuses.


In some ways, because of past mistakes, Arizona is slightly ahead of the curve in climate-based survival strategies. We have no other choice. Though admittedly, there is still plenty of room for improvement & innovation.


Many contaminated mining sites have yet to be mitigated and continue to pose a threat to the health and safety of Arizona’s citizens.


Arizona also needs stronger water protections and an improved political infrastructure to support stronger climate-based initiatives. Though, I am confident, the will to work toward these goals appears to be stronger than ever, which does give me hope.

 

On the local level: Verde Valley city strategies


Despite all of the aforementioned challenges, I do consider myself fortunate to live in Arizona, and the Verde Valley, as there are so many reasons to love this state/ region- the beauty and variety of the landscape, the unique cultures and histories, and so much more. It'd be hard to imagine living anywhere else!


One of the most reassuring things I’ve observed in recent years is how local-level policymakers have worked toward intelligent solutions and strategies to face the realities and challenges of climate change; policies that govern resource management and development are closer in alignment with future projections than ever before and are designed with sustainability in mind.


In the following paragraphs, I will narrow my focus to zoom in on policymaking at a local level- as my work to form a comprehensive understanding of Arizona’s Verde Valley, specifically the Urban Rural Interface aspect, is after all, the overarching theme of my work in this series.


The information I will share will consist of data that I’ve collected from 3 of the Valley’s largest cities: Camp Verde (pop. 12,147), Cottonwood (12,029- with an additional 12,019 residents/ consumers residing in an unincorporated area known as Verde Villages), and Sedona (9,684).

The information I’m providing is intended to be an overview of these 3 cities’ strategic planning as it relates to climate change and urban development; as the area is poised for continual growth in the years to come.


It is my hope that this article can be a resource for anyone who wants to learn more about what the Verde Valley’s governing bodies are doing to address future challenges, and also what we, as individuals, can do to be better prepared for a challenging future that I hope can still be rewarding despite its intensity.

 

The data


The first set of data will include calculations of the 3 cities’ climate change risks, provided by ClimateCheck.com.


The data is a snapshot of each city’s “risk range” in terms of the top 5 climate risk factors: heat, fire, drought, precipitation and flooding. The last 2 seem like a moot point, but I will include them nonetheless.


The results are as follows:


Camp Verde:

Heat Risk: 85%

Fire Risk: 64%

Drought Risk: 17%

Precipitation Risk: 9%

Flood Risk: 1%

 

Cottonwood:

Heat Risk: 85%

Fire Risk: 62%

Drought Risk: 17%

Precipitation Risk: 10%

Flood Risk: 1%


Sedona:

Heat Risk: 87%

Fire Risk: 66%

Drought Risk: 17%

Precipitation Risk: 14%

Flood Risk: 1%


As you can see, and I will add, unsurprisingly, heat and fire are the cities’ greatest risks. According to the data, these risks are considered both "extreme" and "very high" respectively. The third, fourth and fifth factors, drought, precipitation and flooding, are considered "relatively low".


These figures make sense when you look at the Verde Valley landscape, which is comprised of vast swaths of high desert forest and scrub land (which are extremely fire prone because of Arizona's arid climate) with substantial amounts of water reserves from the Verde River, Oak Creek and additional tributaries and groundwater sources, which support robust riparian habitats and allow for unique biodiversity and recreational opportunities. However, it is important to note that these water sources are not infinite and face threats from groundwater pumping, invasive species and more.


“The climate is warming and that has consequences for the Verde River and its sources. Hotter temperatures result in greater pumping of water to irrigate lawns and farms. Evaporation increases, resulting in dryer soils and stressed plants and animals. It is more important than ever that we take actions to be more river friendly.” (Friends of the Verde River).


I would say that the 3 city (Camp Verde, Cottonwood & Sedona) planning departments (council, planning & zoning, etc.) are well-aware of what the issues are in terms of climate risk. Looking at their general plans, it appears they are taking these matters seriously.


Each general plan includes information about environmental elements and planning & development strategies as they relate to infrastructure, resource management and general community values. I will provide an overview & comparison:


Camp Verde:

The fastest-growing municipality in the Verde Valley (6 to 9% per year), Camp Verde has a general plan that emphasizes protecting and preserving natural habitats that sustain life and community, with an emphasis on quality of life and responsible development. They plan to achieve this by using “clear and predictable” permitting processes which are subject to land-use designations as described by character area planning & zoning regulations.



Cottonwood:

Similarly to Camp Verde, Cottonwood is growing, albeit more slowly at about 1-2% per year. Cottonwood’s general plan identifies developable areas, which are based on water availability, land structure and zoning regulations, and defines the character of the community based on several factors, beginning with economic development and followed by land use, housing, transportation and public services. Their development strategy states that development regulations “must be consistent with land use designations”, and emphasizes natural, open space preservation and maintenance where applicable.



Sedona:

While Sedona is one of the few cities in the Verde Valley to have a decline in growth in recent years, it is unknown if that trend will continue indefinitely- however it is not likely to experience substantial growth due to limited developable land capacity (as of 2022, the city was 82% built-out). Its challenges lie more with tourism-related impacts to natural resources and general operations/management, with key issues identified, beginning with traffic, followed by housing (which is affected by a large number of short-term rentals (STRs) and lack of affordable options for low-income workers), tourism (management of traffic, parking, crowding, environmental damage and aesthetic degradation from graffiti, litter, etc.), recreation management (ethics of recreants vs. impact on community, OHV management, etc.) and lastly STRs & real-estate/ housing impacts. Other focuses include community engagement strategies and community building & partnerships. The city has also mapped current land uses and future land uses, which includes recommendations for development, proposals and potential rezoning options for property owners.


 

Summary


In short, environment is a key factor in the general planning strategies of the 3 largest cities in the Verde Valley- each one having its own unique challenges and projected impacts to natural resources. It is worth noting that all of the cities understand and have identified the need for improved public education and engagement and have presented strategies for accomplishing this goal in their general plans.


Each city has detailed descriptions of resources and management strategies, and all seem to be reasonably prepared to balance growth with sustainability- however, I believe Sedona will struggle the most with regard to tourist impact and housing.


Other steps being taken are the implementation and upgrades of green technology in city-owned properties- solar power, low-wattage lighting and stronger conservation efforts for habitats, soils, waterways and wildlife are all part of the city plans.


It is my opinion that the biggest challenge for each city going forward is going to be unknown variables with regard to climate, as I have already stated how the precedents for climate change impacts have already been surpassed by human activity/ impact, as noted by scientists, and have happened with a much faster rate than previously anticipated. This is clear evidence of how data cannot be predictable or relied on to the extent of complete accuracy.


I believe that if anything, the smartest strategy is to overestimate the impacts of climate change going forward- to prepare for the absolute worst, most extreme scenarios, because that is what we have been seeing thus far. It makes sense that that trend will continue if we remain on our current trajectory, and even if we do our best to contain, slow it, and embrace it.


With all of that being said, the Verde Valley can survive for a lot longer than it would otherwise with the right planning. That should be the goal and appears to be the goal when it comes to city planning.


The only other variable are residents. We all have our part to play as well.

 

What can residents do to be prepared?


As I’ve written in the past, ordinary citizens have more of a choice than they realize when it comes to the role they play in local policymaking; it is no different when it comes to climate change and planning policy.


Citizens have the right to information. All the climate data and plans are online for anyone to access, anytime they wish. The challenge is always finding the time- and for some, the willingness to learn.


Citizens may also simply lack the knowledge of how to find this information- how do they know where to look when they don’t know where to begin?


I will offer a few sources of information as a starter-pack for curious citizens. I’ve already included links to Camp Verde, Cottonwood and Sedona’s general plans, but here are links to each Verde Valley city & town website (official and affiliate for unincorporated areas):


Verde Village: https://vvcc.life/

Rimrock/ Lake Montezuma (county managed): https://www.yavapaiaz.gov/Home

Yavapai-Apache Nation: https://yavapai-apache.org/

 

Following that information, here are a few Arizona-based websites:

 

ASU Urban Climate Research Center: https://ucrc.asu.edu/

 

Those are all great places to read, learn, research and guide. This is by no means a complete list, but a good general foundation.

 

I believe there is no place for ignorance in climate survival. The onus is on all of us to learn, prepare, and be part of the solution to our own survival, and the survival of future generations, not just our species, but all.


I don’t mean to sound harsh or extreme, or hypocritical. I understand that we are all modern humans and are also imperfect by nature in that we don’t always see ourselves as part of nature. I think that we must take that understanding seriously and take regular looks at ourselves, our lives, our habits, and identify areas that can be improved. The information is out there; it is up to us to do our best with what we know.

 

"For that which befalleth the sons of men befalleth beasts; even one thing befalleth them: as the one dieth, so dieth the other; yea, they have all one breath; so that a man hath no preeminence above a beast: for all is vanity." — Ecclesiastes 3:19


For more information about the Verde Valley Urban Rural Interface, visit my other blog link: https://lofrisby.wixsite.com/azcreative/post/questions-contemplating-the-verde-valley-urban-rural-interface-an-ongoing-exploration


Thank you for reading.




© Lo Frisby 2026


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